Author(s):

Abhiram Dash, RK Patnaik, SK Dwibedi, BS Bishoyi and P Shatpathy

Abstract: The variation in the distribution of rainfall over time results in drought, abnormal and normal rainfall in different years. The statistical study of rainfall probability is of utmost important for proper planning of the crops of a region due to the random nature of rainfall pattern. The probability distribution of drought, normal and abnormal rainfall at Bargarh district in western Odisha is studied monthly and seasonally from rainfall data for period of 24 years (1993-94 to 2016-17). The month having monthly rainfall less than half of mean monthly rainfall is regarded as drought month, more than twice the mean monthly rainfall is regarded as abnormal month and in between half and twice of the mean monthly rainfall is regarded as normal month. The probability of normal rainfall remains high during kharif season (June – September) with very low probability occurrences of drought months. The probability of drought months remains high in rabi season, whereas, in summer season the probability of abnormal months remains high. The C.V. of rainfall is less in months having more rainfall and increases in dry months. Thus there is high degree of uncertainty of rainfall in dry months, whereas, the wet months have consistency in their rainfall.

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