Author(s):

Moumita Baishya and Ravi Ranjan Kumar

Abstract: The present study is an attempt to forecast the prices of mushroom in the markets of Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and India. The time-series data on the monthly price of mushroom required for the study was collected from the AGMARKNET website for the period January 2008 to December 2019. The seasonal ARIMA model was used for the modeling of price using the Box-Jenkins technique and best-fitted models were selected based on lowest RMSE, AIC, BIC and MAPE values. The models ARIMA (2,1,2)(1,1,1)_[12], ARIMA (1,0,4)(1,1,2)_[12], ARIMA (1,1,1)(2,1,1)_[12], and ARIMA (3,1,1)(1,1,2)_[12] were found to be the best fitted model for Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and India respectively. After model models validations, the mean absolute percentage error values were close to the value of fitted models. The results revealed that forecasted wholesale prices of mushroom were higher in the markets from September to November 2020-21. The best-identified models were used for predicting the future prices of 24 months (January 2020 to December 2021). The analysis was done in “R” statistical software.

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