Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry
Vol. 6, Issue 3 (2017)
Impact assessment of climate change on rice yield using simulation model
Ashish Singh, AK Singh and AN Mishra
Rice crop yield prediction using normalized yield difference analysis on seasonal basis reveal that maximum temperature may cause the reduction in yield of rice in Eastern U.P. by 1% to 1.2% / ha during 2020 to 2080. Minimum temperature may decrease the yield of rice by 1.5% to 1.8% / ha. South-West monsoon rainfall will remain the major factor for controlling the yield of rice by the end of 2080. Increase of yield in Eastern U.P. may increase to the extent of 28% to 30% / ha. Future prediction of Tmax & Tmin scenario on monthly basis predicts that the month of December and January will be hotter than November contrary to normal trends. For T minimum the prediction in Eastern U.P., increase of temperature will be during month of December and January for 2020 to 2080. The rate of increase of Tmax those during months in Eastern U.P. will be higher during 2050-2080 (2 to 4 oC) as compared to 2020 to 2050(1 to 2 oC). During 2020, the rainfall will be lower in Eastern U.P. Terminal drought (60 DAT -75 DAT) at 50% flowering to milking stage is more severe to reduce the rice yield as compared to drought at early tillering (15 to 25 DAT) and vegetative stage (45 to 60 DAT). Simulated yield of rice reduced from average 2020 to 2080 in the tune of 15.13%, 11.19%, and 14.09% under July 5th, July 15th, July 25th transplanting of rice variety Sarjoo-52 respectively. The Rate of decrease of simulated yield of rice Sarjoo-52 variety under 2020 to 2080 was faster under delayed transplanting of July 25th. Integrated crop management emphasized in future besides developing short duration, drought tolerant varieties responsive to low inputs.
Pages: 841-844 | 689 Views 30 Downloads
Ashish Singh, AK Singh and AN Mishra. Impact assessment of climate change on rice yield using simulation model. J Pharmacogn Phytochem 2017;6(3):841-844.