Author(s):

Shabana Tabasum, KN Singh, Parmeet Singh and Talib Hussain

Abstract: Agriculture is the major land use across the globe. Agriculture production is highly dependent on climate since crop growth is influenced by solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. To assess the impact of climate change on productivity of rice, a simulation study was carried out using CERES-rice model embedded in DSSAT (V 4.5) to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on the four different cultivars of rice i.e. Shalimar- rice 1, Jhelum, SKAU-341 and SKAU-382 in terms of yield in different locations (Kokernag, Kupwara, Srinagar, Badgam and Anantnag) of Kashmir valley. The climatic scenario for 2011-2090 under A1B was extracted from a PRECIS run obtained from IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune) which showed that in the year 2040 the maximum temperature will increase by 2 ^oC, minimum temperature by 2.3^oC and CO₂ concentration by 80 ppm. Lowest drop in the yield with climate change was observed using weather data of Kokernag per cent decrease ranged between 11.71 to 15.52%, where at other stations i.e. Kupwara, Anantnag, Srinagar and Budgam per cent decrease ranged between 37.46 to 53.67. At Kupwara among different varieties decrease in the yield was recorded between 47.32 to 49.54 corresponding decrease at Anantnag, Srinagar and Budgam ranged between 50.91 to 53.67,37.46 to 41.30 and 45.32 to 47.52 The cultivar SKAU-341 and Shalimar rice-1 were found more sensitive to climate change as compared to Jhelum and SKAU -382. This is because of the reason that SKAU-341 and Shalimar rice-1 are long duration cultivars compared to Jhelum and SKAU-382. Simulated yield of different varieties ((Shalimar rice-1, Jhelum, SKAU-341 and SKAU-382) tested at different locations indicated that there was an overall decrease in rice yield with regard to different varieties.

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