N Pattanayak, S Behera, SP Mishra, AK Padhiary and RK Rout
Agriculture is the largest employer in our country, besides being an important contributor to the country’s GDP. Rice is grown as a principal cereal crop in our state Odisha and here it is regarded as the staple food. To feed the exponentially growing population of our state the quantity of rice production is to be enhanced. But it has been seen that the rice area is retarding day by day due to industrialization, urbanization, construction of roads etc. The production and yield are also fluctuating over the years. In this endeavor, it has been tried to give a picture of rice on area, production and productivity of seven districts of west central table land and mid central table land of the state season wise. Besides, the similarity with respect to yield of rice has been studied among these seven districts along with their growth rates. Further, some univariate models have been fitted to rice area, production and yield of these districts season wise to forecast their near future values. This study will immensely help the policymakers for policy formulation and implementation to enhance the food security and sustainability of the people of Odisha.
The study was based on the secondary data (2000-01 to 2009-10) on rice area, production and productivity of the study area. The data were collected from the records of Bureau of Economics & Statistics and Agriculture department of Odisha government. By the application of advanced statistical tools and techniques with the help of computer the analysis was carried out.
The analysis revealed that area under rice cultivation was almost stagnant from 2005-06 to 2009-10 in both Autumn and Summer seasons in comparison to Winter and total rice. Variability in area, production and yield based on the 10 years observations showed more than 50 per cent fluctuation in the seasons except Winter season, where the fluctuation was less.
Taking the average rice yield into consideration, the districts were found to be clustered into four groups in Autumn (maximum of Sambalpur of 1040.60kg/ha and minimum of Angul, Bolangir and Deogarh with average of 831.10kg/ha) and Winter (maximum of Bargarh, Sambalpur and Sonepur of 1753.90kg/ha and minimum of Angul and Deogarh of 1205.60kg/ha). In Summer season the districts were into six (maximum of Bargarh of 3065.10kg/ha and minimum of Deogarh of 1576.20kg/ha). Deogarh was placed in the last cluster for all seasons.
The annual percentage growth rate on area was decreasing in almost all the districts in Autumn but the production was increasing in small pace in Summer season.
For forecasting the area, production and productivity the fitted models were found to be different for the districts season wise. The models best fitted and screened showed a forecast error from 0.16 to 14.69 per cent.
N Pattanayak, S Behera, SP Mishra, AK Padhiary and RK Rout. Study of paddy scenario in the west central table land and mid central table land climatic zones of Odisha. J Pharmacogn Phytochem 2018;7(3):2302-2305.