• Printed Journal
  • Indexed Journal
  • Refereed Journal
  • Peer Reviewed Journal
Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry

Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry

Vol. 9, Issue 1 (2020)

Jute price forecasting in Murshidabad market of west Bengal using ARIMA technique

Author(s):

Ravi Ranjan Kumar, Akhilesh Kumar Gupta, Chinmayee Patra and Mamata

Abstract:
The present study is an attempt to forecast the prices of jute in the markets of Murshidabad district of West Bengal. The time series data on monthly price of jute required for the study was collected from AGMARKNET website for the period January, 2002 to December, 2019. The seasonal ARIMA model was used for the modelling of price using the Box-Jenkins technique and best model was selected on the basis of lowest RMSE, AIC and MAPE values and the best identified model was ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,0,0)[12]. The fitted values for the in-sample period and predicted values for out-sample period were closer to real time price values. The best identified model was used for predicting the future prices of 12 months (January, 2020 to December, 2020). The forecasted price rises from the month of March, 2020 and stabilizes thereafter. The analysis was done in “R” statistical software.

Pages: 1802-1807  |  753 Views  358 Downloads


Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry
How to cite this article:
Ravi Ranjan Kumar, Akhilesh Kumar Gupta, Chinmayee Patra and Mamata. Jute price forecasting in Murshidabad market of west Bengal using ARIMA technique. J Pharmacogn Phytochem 2020;9(1):1802-1807.

Important Publications Links
Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry Pharmacognosy

Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry

Call for book chapter