Author(s):

Abhiram Dash and Pragati Panigrahi

Abstract: Forecasting of area/yield/production of crops is one of the important aspect in agricultural sector. Crop yield forecasts are extremely useful in formulation of policies regarding stock, distribution and supply of agricultural produce to different areas in the country. In this study the forecast values of area, yield and hence production of kharif pulses are found. ARIMA method should not be used for finding the forecasted values for the testing period as this would increase the uncertainty with the end period of testing data. The uncertainty will further increase for the next future periods for which we want to obtain the forecast values. So, in the present study, the regression models are tried for the purpose of forecasting as these models have no such limitation. The regression models used for the study are Linear, Quadratic, Cubic, Power, Compound and Logarithmic. The parametric co-efficients are tested for significance, the error assumptions are also tested and the model fit statistics obtained for different models are compared. Logarithmic model is found to be the best model for area under kharif pulse and power model for yield of kharif pulse. It is found that though there is increase in future areas, the decrease in future yield causes a slow increase in production of kharif pulse.

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