Author(s):

Megha Goyal, Suman Ghalawat, Nitin Agarwal and Neelam

Abstract: COVID-19, an extremely transferrable virus, was reported firstly in Wuhan, China, in December-2019. Since then, there has been an aggressive growth in the figure of such cases around the globe. As of 29th May 2020, there have been 5,704,736 confirm cases, including 357,736 deaths, reported to WHO. The total figure of confirmed infected individuals in India is 165,799 and 4971 deaths to date. The figure shows the outbreak of the virus in various countries. In the current study, an effort has been made to analyze, and forecasting confirmed cases of corona-virus in India. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model by Box and Jenkins (1976) is used for prediction. This technique uses historical data of univariate time series to investigate its particular trend and estimate the forthcoming cycle. The daily data of pandemic confirm cases from 15thfeb 2020 to 25th may 2020 is used for model development, and five days ahead is projected. The explanations indicated increasing inclination in COVID patients.

Pages: 383-387  |  760 Views  166 Downloads

Download (459KB)